Make yahoo messenger Usable

I really dislike bloatware where software vendors keep adding unnecessary features to a good product till it becomes a resource hog and unusable. Latest victim has been yahoo messenger. Though I have stopped using it, many of my friends are still there. So, I went about cleaning up the Yahoo messenger to make it more usable. Here is what I Got:


And here is how to do it:
1. This works on version 8 of YM. So uninstall your current yahoo messenger if it is a different version.
2. Get hold of version 8 from olderversion.com 8.0.0.506 is listed at http://www.oldversion.com/Yahoo-Messenger.html and install it. During installation ensure that you select custom install and untick yahoo toolbar. Else you can go to add/remove program from control panel and remove it later.
3. Next we have to ensure that it does not update itself again to latest version. To do this go to C:\Program Files\Yahoo!\Messenger and delete “yupdater.exe” or “yupdater”
4. If you want to use one particular skin ( I use classic) go to C:\Program Files\Yahoo!\Shared\Graphics and delete other skin names from there. For example classic skin file will look like preview_classic_msgr. Leave it and delete all other files there.
5. Now we will tweak some setting within messenger. So start YM. Go to Actions> Choose a plugin. There go to my plugin tab and delete any plugin you don’t need by clicking at the delete icon after them. I suggest removing all plugins.
6. Next go to Messenger> Show/hide. Untick everything there except status chooser and contact search bar.
7. Next go to Messenger> preferences
There in general tab on left untick following
1. Automatically start Yahoo messnger
2. Stand by and wait till I connect to internet
3. Show yahoo inside
4. Open web links in a new browser window. This will let you use your browser tab to open new mails. Else new mails will open in a new window of IE
Next go to alerts and sounds and untick “Enable sound alerts” You can even customize sounds here
8. Finally, we need to remove those annoying ads. For this copy the following code into an text file and save the file with a .bat extension. For examples adremover.bat. Then double click on this file. Here is the code:

@ECHO OFF
TITLE Remove ads from Yahoo Messenger 8-9

ATTRIB -R "%PROGRAMFILES%\Yahoo!\Messenger\Cache\urls.xml"
ECHO "" >"%PROGRAMFILES%\Yahoo!\Messenger\Cache\urls.xml"
ATTRIB +R "%PROGRAMFILES%\Yahoo!\Messenger\Cache\urls.xml"
cacls "%PROGRAMFILES%\Yahoo!\Messenger\Cache\urls.xml" /E /P %username%:N

SET CONTENTPATH=""
IF ERRORLEVEL 1 SET CONTENTPATH="*"

> %TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO REGEDIT4
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO.
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO [HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Yahoo\Pager\YUrl]
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Messenger Ad"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Webcam Upload Ad"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Webcam Viewer Ad"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Webcam Viewer Ad Big"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Webcam Viewer Ad Medium"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Change Room Banner"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Conf Adurl"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Chat Adurl"="*"
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Y Content"=%CONTENTPATH%
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO [HKEY_CURRENT_USER\Software\Yahoo\Pager\Locale]
>>%TEMP%.\noYMads.reg ECHO "Enable Messenger Ad"="0"
REGEDIT /S %TEMP%.\noYMads.reg
DEL %TEMP%.\noYMads.reg

Note: Please Remember the advertisements in Yahoo! Messenger are there to pay for us and fund Yahoo!- and so you should consider not blocking the ads.

9. Alternatively you can remove ads following instructions here: http://www.helpbytes.co.uk/noads.php
10. That’s all. Fire you messenger now to see if you like it

Note: If you have more than one yahoo id and want to login to both of them simultaneously then you can use a tool called: Y! Multi Messenger (Google that). Remember that to use it you will have to diable “ remember password” in yahoo messenger.

Important Update: Nifty Completes Head and Shoulder

Nifty and Sensex have completed head and shoulder patterns. The target for nifty is 3600. While shorting is still best avoided, it is certainly advisable to exit longs at these levels. Detailed analysis will follow after weekly close today.

Missed last rally? Buy Now!

Missed last rally? Buy Now!

In the previous week, Nifty crashed as we were expecting it to. (See Approaching resistance, 31^st May). Was this a correction or reversal?

We get the answer from looking at weekly charts. Nifty has taken support at the rising trend line. The index managed to close above 50% retracement of 6357 to 2252 at 4317. In the process, it formed a hammer showing the buying interest that is coming at these levels. It it interesting to note that every price decline in this correction was at decreased volume and every price rise was on increased activity. This gives us an important clue that current fall was a correction and not a reversal.

Having said that, we must remember that almost every technical indicator is in overbought zone. Even in this fall, stochastic failed to return to oversold condition. So a much deeper correction maybe in hold in future. Currently, An oversold stochastic would have been almost an perfect buying opportunity as directional index shows that bulls are in complete control of markets.

However there is no certainty in this world and, despite overbought indications, I favor a bullish view on basis of volume analysis. Nifty should easily run through resistance at 4690- 4850 in this rally. I would expect it to test 5300-5500 zone in few sessions. It is strongly advisable to go long with a stop loss below 4100 for a target of 5300.

Only risk I can see is current analysis is possibility of a head and shoulder reversal pattern in daily charts. During the correction volumes have rejected lower prices. We would watch closely for any decrease in volumes during up move which will alert of a possible reversal. In case of decreased activity we will liquidate our long near left shoulder high of 4500 and wait for breach of this level to enter long again. If the prices start declining on increased activity from there, we will wait for break below 4100 to initiate shorts. However, as long as volumes confirm with prices we will continue with our long position as per previous para.

Interestingly, USD faces enormous resistance against rupee. It has hit previous gap and both trend line as well as Fibonacci resistances at these levels call for a weaker Dollar. (Tip for NRIs: if intend to send some dollar home, it might be the right time.) One interesting development we saw on Friday was an US based funds selling USD in large amounts. So, are we looking at more FII inflows ? Lets wait and watch.

What is hurting US dollar

What is hurting US dollar

Recently, US dollar has been in a free fall against a basket of of other major currencies. This has left many investors wondering what exactly is hurting the dollar.

A number of reasons seem to be leading to a depreciating dollar. The most obvious of the reasons is the perception of a stabilizing global economy. A stronger economy leads investors to return to stocks and other riskier securities. This leads to what is called “carry trade” and erodes US dollar strength as a “safe haven”. In layman's terms it means that investors need to sell their dollar denominated government holdings and convert it into various currencies for investing. This leads to selling of the dollar against other currencies. This leads to a fall in Dollar value and the present scenario appears to be related to this phenomenon. This may be considered a short term cause of a falling dollar and may be viewed as a positive development as the underlying cause is an improvement in the global economic scenario.

However, the medium term reasons seems to be negative. The medium term reason that seem to be dampening the dollar is related to the US fiscal deficit. The damages caused by the economic depression are enormous in the shape of bust banks, bad home mortgages, looming unemployment and closing businesses. To repair these damages the US government has announced a number of bailout packages. The money for these bailout packages can come from two sources. The government can either print more money (currency notes) or borrow money. The first recourse is highly dangerous which will lead to very high inflation. The wiser thing is to borrow money. However, the borrowing money has a cost. A high level of government borrowing leads to a general rise in the interest rates unintended results like crowding out of private investment. In simple terms, when government starts borrowing interest rates rise making it wither difficult or unprofitable for private firms to borrow and invest in new business or in expansion of existing business. It may be noted that this increase in the interest rate is not induced intentionally to fight inflation, but is a result of worsening economic conditions. This presents a negative view of the US economy, which is likely to keep the dollar subdued in medium term.

What is presented above is theoretical discussion of two primary issues leading to a weak Dollar. In actual practice what happens is that investors who see weakness in US dollar start selling it and converting to other currencies. This can be done, for example by selling USD against CHF or buying EUR against USD. On of the biggest worries have been concerns that Chinese investments in US dollar may be liquidated. The reason why China is feeling the heat is because it holds a huge amount of national saving in US government treasuries and a fall in the value of the US dollar means a fall in the value of their national savings. China has become the largest holder of US paper, with investments of nearly $768 billion. The dollar index has weakened nearly 8.6% since February this year, making the Chinese jittery about their savings. This threatens liquidating of Chinese investments and conversion into other currencies.

How things actually unfold remains to be seen. Obama has already made tall promises of curtailing the deficit to 3% of GDP. However, Obama’s plan needs to be analyzed more closely before one can jump to any conclusion. Fiscal deficit is not something which can be wished away overnight. To reduce fiscal deficit ether government expenses need to be reduced by curtailing expenses or government revenues need to be increased by increasing taxes. Reducing government expenses in such economic scenario seems impractical where more chaos is likely if government stops bailouts. Only way to increases government revenue is by increasing taxes. However, an increase in taxes reduces disposable incomes of consumers. Lower disposable incomes can slacken demand and reduce production. This in turn can again slacken growth of GDP, leading to a negative investor sentiment, which can exert further downward pressure on the value of the US dollar.

In conclusion, fundamentals dictate that the US dollar may face some downward pressure in the medium term and its long term performance will depend upon how the US economy recovers during this period. In any case, we can be happy to note that the most of the talk today is about economic recovery and the recession seems to be fading into the past.

Approaching resistance?

Nifty and Sensex approaching resistance zone

Most of the investors have been caught napping by current surge in Indian stock markets. While many are still in denial mode, most of them have come to terms with new reality. What they are looking for is an entry point, wondering when can we expect a correction.

As far as charts are concerned, we might already be approaching resistance zone. Interesting nifty and Sensex seem to be presenting different pictures. Nifty is yet to reach its major resistance between 4700 to 5200. But Sensex has resistance very close between 14700 to 15500. Divergence theory anyone?

Coming back to Nifty, It has been in a nicely formed uptrend in daily charts. On the upside, the index has already threatened to breach the upper channel resistance once. Although it withdrew from there, it formed a flag like formation and has broken up from there. The flag indicates a target of 4900. On the downside, we have channel resistance at 4700. This level coincides with a recent past significant top. If that's not is enough, fibo resistance sits at 4818. Final resistance is at 5200. This coupled with an unnaturally steep channel makes one skeptic. Add to that the fact that the channel is diverging, indicating emotional trading. Now, emotions in markets should always make one cautious. Given all these, i would expect some correction in near future. Note the correction maybe a “line” or what is called consolidation. So the outlook does not necessarily turn negative. In any case, nifty has a strong resistance turned support at 3900-4000. I wont be expecting any correction to take it below that level. In fact outlook will turn neutral first and then negative if that support is breached convincingly.

Meanwhile Sensex already threatened to breach the upper channel line though it was sold off from there and could not sustain the surge. First resistance sits at 14900. And then, we can expect significant selling pressure near previous top at 15500. On downside, I would expect 12900-13000 to hold. Breach of that level will again turn the outlook neutral first and then negative.

In a nutshell, we are in strong bull run and looking for corrections to enter the markets is likely to result in a wild goose chase. I would recommend a staged entry- buying gradually at every stage. This will keep one safe from any correction without significantly compromising gains from upsides. But whatever you do, don't go short in a strong bull run. And if you are getting tempted, go listen to the Gambler by Kenny Rogers -

“If you're gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right...
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run...
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin when the dealins done.”

Market intelligence: Best exit poll

Prologue: Most of this post contents no specific market analysis, only general discussion. If you are looking for market specific view,skip to last paragraph.

Let me admit it at the outset. I had no intention of boring you with a post on a beautiful Sunday morning. Actually, my head is still hurting- after effects of a Saturday night blast and endless sessions of Age Of Empires finished of with selecting and watching the worst movie on TV (Ghatak- Destroyer)! So i had comfily settled with a huge mug of coffee and newspaper. “Gyaan givers should now go into hiding and hang up their brains.”, Says Shobha de. Please go ahead, i say and start my lappy for some soothing music. But before i could have settled for Nusrat fateh ali khan, one of friends buzzes me on gtalk and in all her innocence asks “Aapko election se pahle hi kaise pata chal gaya tha stock market will go up”. So here i am explaining.

First of all i am no fortune teller. And i take too little interest in politics to bother about who is going to win elections even if i was one. I think India will do well despite its politicians not because of them. So i always discount the fact that politicians will do everything in their capacity to take us back to stone age.

However, i might have guessed the election results correctly if i had bothered to make a guess. Thats because i analyse the best exit poll ever designed- Price action in market. Now, in a exit poll, people may lie. They can't lie in market. While their analysis may be incorrect there is no doubt about their sincerity. When they buy or sell something they are essentially honest because its their money. So that gives first advantage to chartists. Their are no lies. No hidden agenda. Genuine analysis of market participants goes into the price. When they buy, price goes up and when they sell price goes down. Why not watch this movement instead of listening to senseless gyaan givers.

Second advantage comes from the the fact that price action reflects views of ALL market participants and ONLY market participants. When majority decides that a share at 1000 rs is cheap buy, the price goes up. The price action is determined by all participants and none of the outsiders. So when i see price of this share going up i have an honest exit poll about the price of the share. Again lying is not possible because if someone tries to sell this share, he will be wiped out of being a market participant.

No surprise then that even before elections i said- BUY. Whats even more fun is that even if CPM would have won the election with 100% majority, we couldnt have gone wrong. Essentially the elections were irrelevant as far as market movement is concerned. The fact remains that price action shows buying interest in market and as long as this interest is there we need not bother ourselves with silly things like elections. Of course we can always enjoy all the crap by shobha de on a Sunday morning smiling all the way through the article!

Market notes: In my support for freewares, i have finally managed to do away with microsoft office in favour of open office. The unfortunate fallout has been that i don't yet know how to format the price data for use in my charting software. Thats why i am not able to post any charts here. However, Since my last post, market has shown considerable strength. See the hammer in quarterly charts for example. Its better formed than what you will find in technical analysis textbooks! Add to that the fact that sensex has already breached upper trendline of the downward channel. So i would suggest if you haven't bought yet, go ahead and buy. Don't buy because markets will go up tomorrow. Buy because 5 years down the road you will be proudly able to boast to everyone that you bought when sensex was at 12000!

Guess that's long enough. So i sign off. Keep investing wisely earn good returns and always remember:
“Jab bhi chahega chin lega wo... sab usika hai aapka kya hai”

(Aalok Shrivastav, in Jagjit singh's Inteha)

Something to cheer about?

When Sensex was at its peak, I struck my neck out and warned about possible shocks (Saturday, November 17, 2007: Time for shocks? ). But after all, God gave us neck so that we can stick it out! So, let’s analyse Indian stock markets again and see if there may be something to cheer about when everyone is telling you to invest in PPF.
As previously mentioned in this blog, as of today we are in definite bear market with clearly identifiable lower highs and lower lows. Naturally, we need to short in markets. At the same time, the most important analysis in technical analysis is to identify trend reversals. Hence, the need to be alert to any possibility of reversal of the bear market. While there are no clear signs of strength in the charts yet, I can see several indications of buying pressure at these levels. The Bull Run took Sensex from 3000 to 21000 in (as expected) three primary waves. Incidentally, the bear market has completed three waves too. However, it remains to be seen if these three waves are primary waves or merely secondary fluctuations with a single huge primary wave. Another positive clue comes from the Fibonacci analysis which suggests 50% retracement support at 7800 (We are sticking to logarithmic scale). Not surprisingly, Sensex saw huge buying pressure at those levels and formed a hammer on 21st October 2008. What’s even more encouraging is the fact the Sensex has shown some strength from that low. Markets have already formed two higher bottoms and higher tops from those levels. Intrestingly, the buying was with increased Voume.This suggests some possibility of consolidation at these levels. Given that the markets have already corrected between 1/3rd to 2/3rd of the gains of previous rally, there is a possibility that this consolidation to actually a phase of accumulation before new rally.
Hence, we must watch support in 7500-8000 region very carefully. If that support is breached then next support at 5000 comes into focus. However there is a possibility that this support may hold and a new bull run may take off from these levels. Unfortunately, it is unrealistic to expect a very quick recovery. But we do hope for a slow and gradual rally that would take Sensex beyond previous top at 21000. If we see, the entire rally as first primary wave then current fall becomes a secondary correction. In that scenario, we can expect Sensex to be near channel top in 60,000-70,000 range in next five years. Now, that’s assuming proportionate movement (Logarithmic scale) as Sensex multiplied 7 times from 3000 to 21000 in 5 years between 2003-2008. However, I am sure that even a linear scale will give projections that are very favourable to long term investors. This scenario becomes invalid if Sensex breaches lower trend line near 7200. However, a less steep trendline may still be valid and we can project it forward 5 years from new bottom to get expected levels.

In a nutshell, I would say that although short term trend may be bearish, Indian equity markets still offer enormous opportunity to long term investor with a 5 to 10 years time horizon. We need to watch out for signs of recovery and quickly jump into the moving train when it leaves the station!